The Stakes Are High

Monday night brings us one of Serie A’s most intriguing tactical battles as underperforming Roma host league leaders Atalanta. Having crunched the numbers on Wyscout and StatsBomb, I’m seeing patterns that suggest this won’t be your typical top-vs-midtable encounter.

Team Form: A Study in Contrasts

Atalanta have been nothing short of sensational - 9 wins from 13 with their front three of Lookman, Retegui (12 goals) and De Ketelaere combining for 28 goal contributions. Their 2.3 xG per game ranks second only to Inter.

Meanwhile, Roma sit 12th after three consecutive defeats. Despite boasting Serie A’s second-best home record (8 clean sheets in 9), their defensive frailties are exposed by an alarming stat: they’ve conceded in 8 straight matches across all competitions.

Tactical Key Battles

1. Midfield Control: Can Cristante contain De Ketelaere’s roaming movements?
2. Wing Play: Zalewski vs Zappacosta could decide which team dominates transitions
3. Set Pieces: With Smalling absent, Roma lose aerial dominance against Atalanta’s physicality

Prediction Model Output

My statistical model gives Atalanta a 58% win probability, but notes Roma’s surprising home xG of 1.8/game. Likely outcomes:

• 1-2 Away Win (42% probability)
• 1-1 Draw (27%)
• 0-2 Away Win (23%)

The smart money? Back Over 2.5 goals - these teams average 3.1 combined xG when facing similar opponents.